How will regulators handle consolidation in agentic commerce?

Why would agentic commerce consolidate?

People pick an assistant the way they pick a phone: by habit, trust and what is already in their pocket. The Gemini app passed a billion monthly users in August 2026. Google launched a Universal Cart across Search and Gemini on 15 October 2026. Meta's Muse buys with a one time card from Stripe's Link. Amazon keeps the others out of its store and builds its own assistant.

Each of those companies owns the conversation, and some own the payment and the data too. We expect shoppers to settle on a few assistants, and discovery, checkout and payments to settle with them. Regulators have seen that shape before.

What have the EU and UK done?

Four examples.

1. Google Shopping.In 2017 the European Commission fined Google €2.42 billion for favouring its own comparison shopping service over rivals. The Court of Justice upheld the decision on 10 September 2024, calling the conduct discriminatory and not competition on the merits.
2. Apple Pay.On 11 July 2024 the Commission made Apple's commitments legally binding. Rival wallets get free access to the iPhone's tap to pay technology on fair terms for ten years across the EEA.
3. Google search, UK.The CMA designated Google with strategic market status in search on 10 October 2025, with a roadmap built around choice screens, data portability, interoperability and ranking.
4. Agent access, Italy.On 24 December 2025 Italy's competition authority imposed interim measures on Meta over WhatsApp Business terms that barred general purpose AI assistants. The Commission opened a parallel investigation.

What has the US done about Google, Meta and Amazon?

Slower, with more courtroom risk, but it has stepped in on all three.

1. Google search.On 5 August 2024 Judge Mehta ruled that Google is a monopolist and acted as one, centred on its default deals with Apple and Mozilla. His September 2025 remedies ended exclusive default deals and required Google to share some search index and user data with rivals, under a technical committee for six years. He declined to break up Chrome or to extend the remedies to Google's AI products, citing how much AI competition there is.
2. Google ad tech.In April 2025 Judge Brinkema held that Google monopolised publisher ad servers and ad exchanges by tying them together. Her remedies ban the tie and give rivals fair access and data, under a monitor for six years, but stop short of forcing a sale of the exchange.
3. Google Play.A jury found for Epic Games on every count in December 2023, and the Ninth Circuit upheld the verdict and a permanent injunction on 31 July 2025. Google can no longer require its own payment solution.
4. Meta.In July 2019 the FTC imposed a $5 billion penalty on Facebook and a 20 year order, the largest ever imposed on any company for violating consumers' privacy. Its bid to unwind Instagram and WhatsApp failed on 18 November 2025, when Judge Boasberg found that TikTok and YouTube compete with Meta. The FTC has said it will appeal.
5. Amazon.On 26 September 2023 the FTC and 17 states sued Amazon, alleging it penalises sellers who price lower elsewhere and requires them to use its fulfilment service to qualify for Prime. Trial is set for 29 March 2027. Separately, in September 2025 Amazon agreed to pay $2.5 billion to settle the FTC's Prime enrolment case: a $1 billion civil penalty and $1.5 billion in refunds.

What have US states done?

Often faster than Washington, and aimed at pricing and payments.

1. Google Play, 52 attorneys general.In December 2023 a bipartisan group announced a $700 million settlement over the Play Store. For at least five years Google agreed to let developers use other payment systems, offer lower prices to people who do, and tell users about it inside their apps.
2. Amazon, California.California sued in September 2022, alleging that merchants who price lower elsewhere lose the Buy Box. The state beat Amazon's motion to dismiss and, on 15 April 2026, its summary judgment motion on a key defence. Trial is set for January 2027.
3. Amazon, Washington DC.The District's attorney general sued in 2021. In August 2024 the DC Court of Appeals revived the case, saying the trial judge “set too high a bar”.
4. Meta and Google, Texas.Texas secured $1.4 billion from Meta in July 2024 over biometric data and $1.375 billion from Google in May 2025 over data collection.

Two themes recur: steering, meaning letting sellers price lower elsewhere or point shoppers to a cheaper way to pay, and access. Agentic commerce raises both. Our guesses on what comes next: which agents can reach a shop and who decides; whether an assistant favours its own checkout and ads; who holds payment credentials; and how agents use shopper data in pricing.

Don't expect new law quickly. On 27 April 2026 the European Commission concluded that the Digital Markets Act remains fit for purpose and did not designate AI services as core platform services this cycle, with the next review in 2029. Existing competition law will do the early work.

Why is that good news for brands?

Because each past intervention opened a door for someone else: rival shopping services, rival wallets, rival payment systems, rival search companies with data. We expect the same here: several assistants, open standards and fair access to them.

That favours brands readable by every assistant, and open protocols such as UCP and MCP over closed ones. It's the logic behind what Walmart is doing, working with more than one platform and finishing the sale on its own side.

What should a brand do about it?

Three things that hold up whichever way the rules fall.

1. Build to open standards.A UCP profile and an MCP address make you readable to any agent. Storefront does that from a product feed for brands that aren't on Shopify.
2. Don't depend on one assistant.See what each one says about you with the free score, in each market you sell in.
3. Own the relationship and the data.Accounts, email and a community of your own, so the customer is yours whichever assistant found them.

Regulators have mostly acted late, gently and in favour of choice. We think that's the right direction for an industry built on trust. Your next customer is AI. Your best is still human.